MAPPED: Ukraine's Mineral Resources + Russia's Military Control
PLUS a bunch of fascinating data on military spending in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Mineral Resources: MAPPED
A few weeks ago, Civixplorer posted this map of Ukraine’s mineral resources to twitter:
Russia’s Military Control of Ukraine (2022-2025)
It looks like Russia already controls a decent percentage of Ukraine’s mineral resources.
👉 Why it matters
Trump is currently demanding that Zelensky hand over mineral rights worth hundreds of billions of dollars as part of the deal to end the war.
How much has the USA spent on the Ukraine war?
It’s hard too find exact numbers, but, so far as I can tell, the US has GIFTED about $106 billion to Ukraine and LENT about $20 billion to Ukraine.
Here are estimates for how much each region has spent to support Ukraine:
🇺🇸 US: $106 billion
🇪🇺 Europe: $140 billion
🇺🇦 Ukraine: $160 billion (does not include loss of life)
*this is since the 2022 invasion
Here’s a graph from The Economist comparing US and EU spending on the Ukraine War:
From the Council on Foreign Relations:
It’s important to note that of the $175 billion total, only $106 billion directly aids the government of Ukraine. Most of the remainder is funding various U.S. activities associated with the war in Ukraine, and a small portion supports other affected countries in the region.
In 2024, as part of a G7 agreement, US and Europe agreed to lend $50 billion to Ukraine — $20 billion from the US and $30 billion from Europe. Though, apparently, this is not supposed to be a loan that is paid back by Ukraine, but rather by the funds recovered by sanctions put on Russian oligarchs.
Trump’s Demand for Ukraine’s Minerals — Behind the Scenes
From the Wall Street Journal:
The U.S. demands were first presented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Kyiv last week.
A U.S. Republican lawmaker who met with Zelensky on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference last week described the Ukrainian leader’s account of the interaction with Bessent.
Bessent pushed the paper across the table, demanding that Zelensky sign it, the Ukrainian president told the lawmaker. Zelensky took a quick look and said he would discuss it with his team. Bessent then pushed the paper closer to Zelensky.
“You really need to sign this,” the Treasury secretary said. Zelensky said he was told “people back in Washington” would be very upset if he didn’t. The Ukrainian leader said he took the document but didn’t commit to signing.
Ah yes, the old paper push.. A flex so above my pay grade that I didn’t know existed until today.
What does Ukraine get in return for their mineral rights?
CNN makes it sound like Ukraine gets nothing except for their debt repaid:
Zelensky said Wednesday the contract asked for the US to own, or receive revenue from, 50% of Ukraine rare earth mineral mining and other natural resource sectors. The sources said the document said it asked for compensation not for future US assistance to Ukraine, but for previous aid.
Seems like a hefty price given that I think the US only lent them $20 billion?
Wall Street Journal makes it sound like it’s unclear what the US is offering in return for the minerals, possibly an interesting economic partnership, but the ask is still excessive:
Trump’s national security adviser, Mike Waltz, this week had called the proposed deal “an economic partnership” and “a historic opportunity to have the United States of America co-invest with Ukraine, invest in its economy, invest in its natural resources.”
…
Zelensky had called the initial proposal “unclear,” saying it had demanded a 50% share of a list of mineral deposits. He said Trump’s demand for $500 billion in minerals was excessive, saying that U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine during the war had totaled about $100 billion.
Where we stand
Up to now, no deal has been made. Zelensky continues to refuse while Trump doubles down. Now, they’re each talking their shit:
Trump says:
Zelensky was a “modestly successful comedian” who became a “dictator” with a “4% approval rating”.
*funny but not true, Zelensky actually has a 57% approval rating (according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology).
Zelensky says Trump lives in a “disinformation bubble”.
*not funny but probably true
☮️ Despite the insults, Wall Street Journal is now reporting that they might bang out a deal this weekend.
*thanks to anyone who read this piece. sorry for any errors i made. it was hard to put together. there are so many grey areas on this topic.
How much has been spent?
Of that, how much was gifted vs lent?
Of that, how much was funneled back to the US by buying weapons from US companies?
I wish someone smarter than me would write a piece.