📊 19 Numbers to Know Before the Biggest IPO in History
Thinking about buying the SpaceX IPO? Read this first.
SpaceX is going public tomorrow.
At $1.8 trillion, it will be the biggest IPO of all time.
Here are 19 things you need to know:
1. Elon is expected to become the world’s first trillionaire. 💰
Adjusted for inflation, Elon is already wealthier than every Gilded Age titan.
3. SpaceX merged with xAI in February 🤝
So “SpaceX” now includes X/Twitter, Grok, and the Colossus data centers.
3. Last year, SpaceX did $18 billion in revenue (with a $4.9B net loss).
This gives them a 94x revenue multiple. The average in the S&P 500 is 3.3x.
4. The IPO is expected to create 4,000 new millionaires, including cafeteria workers and plumbers.
5. SpaceX has 13 products under their umbrella going into tomorrow’s IPO (depending how you count):
🚀 Falcon 9/Heavy — 90% of commercial launch
🐉 Dragon — NASA’s ride to the ISS
🛸 Starship — the mega-rocket (pre-revenue)
🛡️ Starshield — Starlink for the Pentagon
📡 Starlink — 10M+ subs, the cash cow
📱 Direct-to-Cell — satellite internet, no dish
🤖 Grok — the chatbot
💬 X — the social media platform
🧠 Colossus 1 — leased to Anthropic, $1.25B/mo
⚡ Colossus 2 — leased to Google, $920M/mo
🏗️ MACROHARDRR — 3rd data center, building now
🛰️ Orbital data centers — AI compute in space, 2028
💻 Cursor — AI coding app devs love with, $60B buyout pending
6. SpaceX is reportedly aiming to raise $75 billion of new capital. 🤑
This is the biggest raise in the history of IPOs — and nearly double the previous record.
7. SpaceX has a massive complex of data centers that straddles the Tennessee-Mississippi line:
Colossus 1 — the original, built in 122 days in an old Electrolux factory. ~0.3 GW.
Colossus 2 — designed for ~1 GW, came online in January but still ramping (~0.35 GW installed).
MACROHARDRR — a warehouse being converted now, roughly 0.6–0.7 GW when done.
8. SpaceX just did 2 huge deals renting out those data centers to both Google and Anthropic.
Anthropic: $1.25B/mo through May 2029 — all of Colossus 1
Google: $920M/mo through June 2029 — 110K GPUs at Colossus 2
Combined $26B/year, more than all of SpaceX’s 2025 revenue. Both cancellable on 90 days’ notice.
9. Lots of experts warning the valuation makes no sense and is built on a dream.
Steve Eisner (the guy who Steve Carrel played in ‘The Big Short’) warns that:
a) the valuation makes no sense
b) their growth rate has decreased for 4 straight years
c) they’re not profitable
d) they are moving into an incredibly capital intensive business (not Space, but AI)
Despite warnings, there’s still a 63% chance closes with market cap above $2 trillion on Polymarket:
10. There’s a good chance SpaceX merges with Tesla pretty quickly after the IPO. 38% chance it happens before the end of the year on Polymarket.
Both companies have valuations that appear kinda crazy next to their comps:
11. Nasdaq changed its rules so SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 just 15 days after IPO. The S&P 500 refused to bend — it requires 12 months of trading plus four profitable quarters, and SpaceX lost $4.9B last year. So: QQQ gets it now, SPY can’t until mid-2027 at the earliest.
Andrew Ross Sorkin pointed out that the Nasdaq had incentive to make exceptions for SpaceX because Elon had the option to IPO on the NYSE too, but rather chose to do it on the Nasdaq.
Whereas the S&P 500 has no incentive to bend the knee to ELon, because they aren’t a stock exchange. 🤔
12. Tesla and SpaceX announced plans to build a $55B–$119B chip fab in Texas to make their own chips for cars, robots, and AI satellites — taking on TSMC instead of depending on it. No timeline yet.
13. SpaceX has a $60B option to buy Cursor, the hit AI coding app — expected to close 30 days after the IPO.
14. Most people don’t know SpaceX has a whole separate military business: Starshield. Encrypted satellites for the Pentagon and spy agencies. Starlink for the military, basically.
They just landed $2.29B from the Space Force to build a military internet in space — plus a deal with an unnamed intelligence agency reportedly worth billions.
15. About 25% of IPO stocks lose at least half their value in the 3 years after listing day ⚠️
16. SpaceX IPO paperwork says the company has a $28.5 trillion TAM.🌎
This is the largest TAM ever claimed and is almost as much as the entire US GDP.
🤔 Total Addressable Market (TAM) is the total annual revenue opportunity if a company captured 100% of its potential market.
17. Goldman Sachs says SpaceX revenue could rise to $322 billion by 2030
Not everyone is convinced:
18. Elon runs the normal sequence backwards.
Ben Thompson of Stratechery (possibly the coolest tech-business writer out there) explains it best.
He calls Musk “the master of memes” who offers a dream — Mars, fully autonomous vehicles, a $28.5 trillion addressable market — positions his companies’ stock as access to that dream, and “through the alchemy of capital markets, transforms shared delusion into mass market reality.”
The result: “instead of infrastructure leading to a movement, a movement, via the stock market, funded the building out of infrastructure.”
That’s the inversion: most companies build the thing, prove it works, then IPO. Musk raises on the dream, and uses the money raised to make the dream real.
And his track record — electric cars and landing rockets both seemed implausible, and he delivered both, which earns him the benefit of the doubt — is why investors keep funding step one.
He also notes that while the $1.8T valuation is probably way too high, he is happy to see SpaceX IPO because he’d like to see a future where we have more cool s*** going on in space.
19. Random bieber meme
🎶 Banger of the Day
I can’t get enough of this track lately. It’s vbery short – only 1:46 long. But it bangs the whole way through.
Ariis & Yb Wasg’ood - PILOTA
SIDE NOTE: On Instagram, we pair each post with a song that bangs. A lot of people don’t know that we have a comprehensive Spotify playlist with every song we ever played. Click here to check it out. 🎶
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Fun and digestible read — now we wait!
Amazing read - staying strong and holding out over here✊